How Emerging Pests Are Identified

• Recency: Outbreaks should be recent enough to demonstrate active spread, considering pest biology and detectability.
• Expansion: Outbreaks should represent a significant expansion (e.g., different countries or distant regions), not just local spread.
• Migratory pests: Only spread outside their usual migration routes qualifies.
• Re-emerging pests: New strains or biotypes may represent new threats; local re-emergence alone does not qualify.

• A pest is considered limited when it is not widespread across its endangered area.
• However, it may still qualify if absent from several habitable continents or biogeographic regions where its host occurs.

Consider impacts both with and without mitigation measures.

• Direct impacts: Type, frequency, and severity of damage; crop losses; control costs; biotic/abiotic factors; production practices.
• Indirect impacts: Trade restrictions; market access; production costs; feasibility of eradication; health, social, or tourism effects.

• Direct impacts: Reduction of keystone, dominant, or endangered plant species.
• Indirect impacts: Disruption of plant communities; effects on protected areas; ecological imbalance (e.g., erosion, fire risk, nutrient cycling); restoration costs; loss of ecosystem services.

Evaluate pathways, host distribution, trade flows, and survival potential during transport or storage.

• Compare impacts in current and potential new areas (e.g., climate, hosts, and practices).
• Assess unmitigated impacts to evaluate the inherent risk.

• Effectiveness: Consider existing management measures (regulation, surveillance, contingency plans, awareness, biological/chemical control, resistant varieties).
• Recognize differences in preparedness across countries; if many are unprepared, the pest may meet this criterion.
• Management feasibility may vary depending on whether hosts are grown outdoors or under protection.