| Step 1: Distribution and Spread |
| Step 1.1 |
Recent Geographical Spread |
Recent pest outbreaks are reported in more than one area, showing a significant expansion of the pest’s distribution. |
- Recency: Outbreaks should be recent enough to demonstrate active spread, considering pest biology and detectability.
- Expansion: Outbreaks should represent a significant expansion (e.g., different countries or distant regions), not just local spread.
- Migratory pests: Only spread outside their usual migration routes qualifies.
- Re-emerging pests: New strains or biotypes may represent new threats; local re-emergence alone does not qualify.
|
| Step 1.2 |
Current Distribution |
The pest has a limited distribution in its endangered area. |
- A pest is considered limited when it is not widespread across its endangered area.
- However, it may still qualify if absent from several habitable continents or biogeographic regions where its host occurs.
|
| Step 2: Current Impact |
| Step 2.1 |
Economic Impact |
The pest is causing substantial economic impact as described in ISPM 11 and Supplement 2 of ISPM 5. |
Consider impacts both with and without mitigation measures.
- Direct impacts: Type, frequency, and severity of damage; crop losses; control costs; biotic/abiotic factors; production practices.
- Indirect impacts: Trade restrictions; market access; production costs; feasibility of eradication; health, social, or tourism effects.
|
| Step 2.2 |
Environmental Impact |
The pest is causing substantial environmental impact as described in ISPM 11 and Supplement 2 of ISPM 5. |
- Direct impacts: Reduction of keystone, dominant, or endangered plant species.
- Indirect impacts: Disruption of plant communities; effects on protected areas; ecological imbalance (e.g., erosion, fire risk, nutrient cycling); restoration costs; loss of ecosystem services.
|
| Step 3: Risk Evidence |
| Step 3.1 |
Likelihood of Introduction |
The pest has a high likelihood of introduction in new areas based on ISPM 11 assessment. |
Evaluate pathways, host distribution, trade flows, and survival potential during transport or storage.
|
| Step 3.2 |
Scale of Impacts in New Areas |
The pest is likely to cause substantial impacts in new areas, based on ISPM 11. |
- Compare impacts in current and potential new areas (e.g., climate, hosts, and practices).
- Assess unmitigated impacts to evaluate the inherent risk.
|
| Step 3.3 |
Risk Management Challenges |
The pest risk is likely to be difficult to manage effectively in new areas. |
- Effectiveness: Consider existing management measures (regulation, surveillance, contingency plans, awareness, biological/chemical control, resistant varieties).
- Recognize differences in preparedness across countries; if many are unprepared, the pest may meet this criterion.
- Management feasibility may vary depending on whether hosts are grown outdoors or under protection.
|
